{
  "_meta": {
    "title": "CRQC causal model — single source of truth",
    "note": "Every number the model uses, with its source (by key into `entries`). crqc_anchors.h, crqc_data.h and registry.js are GENERATED from this file via registry.py; nothing downstream is hand-edited."
  },
  "anchors": {
    "N0": 1121.0,
    "R2025": 1000000.0,
    "ECC_RATIO": 0.38,
    "BT_YEAR": 2024.0,
    "Q0": 0.1
  },
  "lreq_logical": 6190,
  "factors": {
    "tau_fwd": [
      1.0,
      1.75,
      3.0
    ],
    "h_fwd_slowdown": 5.0,
    "rho": 0.6
  },
  "baseline": {
    "tau": [
      1.0,
      3.0,
      1.6
    ],
    "maturity": [
      4.0,
      12.0
    ],
    "h": [
      4.0,
      14.0
    ],
    "floor": [
      100000.0,
      900000.0
    ],
    "lag": [
      0.0,
      5.0
    ],
    "stall_p": 0.3,
    "stall_yrs": [
      3.0,
      30.0
    ],
    "bt_year": 2024.0
  },
  "datasets": {
    "qubit_history": {
      "fits": "tau",
      "unit": "physical qubits",
      "points": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "value": 5,
          "src": "ibm_survey_2024"
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "value": 127,
          "src": "ibm_eagle"
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "value": 433,
          "src": "ibm_osprey"
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "value": 1121,
          "src": "ibm_survey_2024"
        }
      ]
    },
    "rsa_estimates": {
      "fits": "h",
      "unit": "physical qubits",
      "points": [
        {
          "year": 2012,
          "value": 1000000000.0,
          "src": "fowler_2012"
        },
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "value": 20000000.0,
          "src": "gidney_ekera_2019"
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "value": 1000000.0,
          "src": "gidney_2025"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "roadmaps": {
    "ibm": {
      "vmode": 1,
      "name": "IBM",
      "src": "ibm_condor",
      "unit": "logical qubits",
      "points": [
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "value": 200
        },
        {
          "year": 2033,
          "value": 2000
        }
      ]
    },
    "ionq": {
      "vmode": 2,
      "name": "IonQ",
      "src": "ionq",
      "unit": "logical qubits",
      "points": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "value": 800
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "value": 1600
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "value": 8000
        },
        {
          "year": 2030,
          "value": 80000
        }
      ]
    },
    "quera": {
      "vmode": 3,
      "name": "QuEra",
      "src": "quera_roadmap",
      "unit": "logical qubits",
      "points": [
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "value": 256
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "value": 1000
        }
      ]
    },
    "quantinuum": {
      "vmode": 4,
      "name": "Quantinuum",
      "src": "quantinuum_helios",
      "unit": "logical qubits",
      "points": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "value": 48
        },
        {
          "year": 2030,
          "value": 300
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "interventions": [
    {
      "key": "algo",
      "label": "↘ algorithmic breakthrough",
      "cli": "do: algorithmic breakthrough",
      "src": "oratomic_2026",
      "ops": [
        [
          "h_lo",
          "mul",
          0.5
        ],
        [
          "h_hi",
          "mul",
          0.5
        ],
        [
          "floor_lo",
          "set",
          80000.0
        ],
        [
          "floor_hi",
          "set",
          400000.0
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "hw",
      "label": "↘ hardware / EC breakthrough",
      "cli": "do: hardware/error-corr breakthrough",
      "src": "photonic_inc",
      "ops": [
        [
          "tau_mode",
          "mul",
          0.7
        ],
        [
          "tau_hi",
          "mul",
          0.7
        ],
        [
          "mat_lo",
          "set",
          3
        ],
        [
          "mat_hi",
          "set",
          7
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "wall",
      "label": "↗ engineering wall + pullback",
      "cli": "do: engineering wall + funding pullback",
      "src": "kalai_skeptic",
      "ops": [
        [
          "tau_lo",
          "mul",
          1.6
        ],
        [
          "tau_mode",
          "mul",
          1.6
        ],
        [
          "tau_hi",
          "mul",
          1.2
        ],
        [
          "stall_p",
          "set",
          0.5
        ],
        [
          "stall_lo",
          "set",
          5
        ],
        [
          "stall_hi",
          "set",
          25
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "optimist",
      "label": "↘ match the GRI optimists",
      "cli": "do: match-the-optimists (GRI band)",
      "src": "gri_qtt_2025",
      "ops": [
        [
          "tau_mode",
          "mul",
          0.6
        ],
        [
          "tau_hi",
          "mul",
          0.6
        ],
        [
          "mat_lo",
          "set",
          2
        ],
        [
          "mat_hi",
          "set",
          5
        ],
        [
          "h_lo",
          "mul",
          0.5
        ],
        [
          "h_hi",
          "mul",
          0.5
        ],
        [
          "floor_lo",
          "set",
          50000.0
        ],
        [
          "floor_hi",
          "set",
          300000.0
        ],
        [
          "stall_p",
          "set",
          0.08
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "slip",
      "label": "⤬ below-threshold slips to 2032",
      "cli": null,
      "src": "google_willow",
      "ops": [
        [
          "bt_year",
          "set",
          2032
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "supply",
      "label": "↗ supply-chain rupture (Ga/Ge/Sb ban)",
      "cli": "do: supply-chain rupture (Ga/Ge/Sb ban)",
      "src": "prc_minerals",
      "ops": [
        [
          "tau_mode",
          "mul",
          1.3
        ],
        [
          "tau_hi",
          "mul",
          1.3
        ],
        [
          "stall_p",
          "set",
          0.55
        ],
        [
          "stall_lo",
          "set",
          3
        ],
        [
          "stall_hi",
          "set",
          7
        ]
      ]
    }
  ],
  "calibration": {
    "cite": "gri_qtt_2025",
    "horizons": [
      {
        "year": 2035,
        "label": "10-yr",
        "expert": "28–49%",
        "exp_lo": 28,
        "exp_hi": 49
      },
      {
        "year": 2040,
        "label": "15-yr",
        "expert": "51–70%",
        "exp_lo": 51,
        "exp_hi": 70
      },
      {
        "year": 2045,
        "label": "20-yr",
        "expert": "69–86%",
        "exp_lo": 69,
        "exp_hi": 86
      }
    ],
    "markers": [
      {
        "year": 2033,
        "lo": 17,
        "hi": 31,
        "label": "GRI'23"
      },
      {
        "year": 2039,
        "lo": 0,
        "hi": 5,
        "label": "Sevilla'20"
      }
    ],
    "metaculus": {
      "year": 2033,
      "p": 50,
      "iqr": [
        2030,
        2039
      ]
    },
    "gri_trend_txt": "17–31% (’23) → 19–34% (’24) → 28–49% (’25)",
    "metaculus_txt": "~2033 (IQR 2030–2039)",
    "sevilla_txt": "<5% before 2039"
  },
  "layers": [
    {
      "key": "hardware",
      "title": "Hardware frontier",
      "maps_to": "drives N₀ and τ"
    },
    {
      "key": "errorcorr",
      "title": "Error correction · FT",
      "maps_to": "drives bt_year and q(t)"
    },
    {
      "key": "algorithms",
      "title": "Algorithms · resource est",
      "maps_to": "drives R(t)"
    },
    {
      "key": "standards",
      "title": "Standards · threat",
      "maps_to": "context + calibration"
    }
  ],
  "titles": {
    "gidney_ekera_2019": "How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits",
    "gidney_2025": "How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits",
    "roetteler_2017": "Quantum resource estimates for computing elliptic curve discrete logarithms",
    "ibm_condor": "IBM Quantum roadmap / Condor processor",
    "atom_2023": "Atom Computing 1000+ qubit neutral-atom system",
    "google_willow": "Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold",
    "bluvstein_2024": "Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays",
    "quantinuum_helios": "Quantinuum Helios commercial launch (48 logical / 98 physical qubits)",
    "nist_ir_8547": "Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards",
    "gri_qtt_2024": "2024 Quantum Threat Timeline Report",
    "gri_qtt_2025": "2025 Quantum Threat Timeline Report (7th ed.)"
  },
  "entries": [
    {
      "key": "ibm_condor",
      "name": "IBM",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "IBM, Dec 2023",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/roadmaps/quantum/",
      "sets": "N0",
      "drives": "roadmap",
      "value": "1,121 physical qubits",
      "layer": "hardware",
      "approach": "Superconducting",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Condor: 1,121 physical qubits (2023), first >1,000-qubit superconducting chip; its Starling/Blue Jay logical roadmap (200→2,000), converted to physical (×161.6), drives the optional vendor-curve scenario (§2.3; scenario median 2039)."
    },
    {
      "key": "atom_2023",
      "name": "Atom Computing",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Atom Computing, Oct 2023",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_quantum_processors",
      "informs": "N0",
      "value": "~1,180 qubits",
      "layer": "hardware",
      "approach": "Neutral atom",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "~1,180 neutral-atom qubits (Oct 2023) — corroborates the ~1,100 frontier behind N₀."
    },
    {
      "key": "ionq",
      "name": "IonQ",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "IonQ, Oct 2025",
      "url": "https://www.ionq.com/blog/ionq-hits-aq-64-milestone-ahead-of-schedule-and-sets-its-sights-even-higher",
      "layer": "hardware",
      "approach": "Trapped ion",
      "status": "vendor target",
      "drives": "roadmap",
      "fact": "Reached #AQ 64 on its Tempo system (Oct 2025); its published logical-qubit roadmap (800→80,000, 2027–2030; ionq.com/roadmap), converted to physical (×161.6), drives the optional vendor-curve scenario (§2.3; scenario median 2032)."
    },
    {
      "key": "quera_roadmap",
      "name": "QuEra Computing",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "QuEra, June 2026",
      "url": "https://www.quera.com/our-quantum-roadmap",
      "layer": "hardware",
      "approach": "Neutral atom",
      "status": "vendor target",
      "drives": "roadmap",
      "value": "256 logical (Libra 2028) → 1,000+ (Next-Gen 2029)",
      "fact": "Roadmap: Libra (2028) — 256 logical / >10k physical at 10⁻⁶; Next-Gen 'gigaquop' (2028–29) — 1,000+ logical / >20k physical at 10⁻⁹. Converted to physical (×161.6), drives the optional vendor-curve scenario (§2.3; scenario median 2034)."
    },
    {
      "key": "psiquantum",
      "name": "PsiQuantum",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "PsiQuantum, Sept 2025",
      "url": "https://www.psiquantum.com/news-import/psiquantum-1b-fundraise",
      "layer": "hardware",
      "approach": "Photonic",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Raised $1B Series E (Sept 2025, ~$7B valuation) toward a million-qubit fault-tolerant machine; chips fabbed at GlobalFoundries."
    },
    {
      "key": "microsoft_topo",
      "name": "Microsoft",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Physics World, 2025",
      "url": "https://physicsworld.com/a/experts-weigh-in-on-microsofts-topological-qubit-claim/",
      "layer": "hardware",
      "approach": "Topological",
      "status": "contested",
      "fact": "Majorana 1 announced Feb 2025 as the first topological-qubit chip — but the claim is contested: Nature found the results do not evidence Majorana zero modes."
    },
    {
      "key": "google_willow",
      "name": "Google Quantum AI",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Google, Nature 2024",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13687",
      "sets": "BT_YEAR",
      "value": "2024 (below-threshold)",
      "layer": "errorcorr",
      "approach": "Superconducting",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Willow: below-threshold error correction — Λ=2.14 (>2× suppression per +2 code distance), 0.143% logical error/cycle; 105-qubit chip, distance-7 code (101 qubits), Nature 2024 — the model's bt_year anchor."
    },
    {
      "key": "quantinuum_helios",
      "name": "Quantinuum",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Quantinuum, Nov 2025",
      "url": "https://www.quantinuum.com/press-releases/quantinuum-announces-commercial-launch-of-new-helios-quantum-computer-that-offers-unprecedented-accuracy-to-enable-generative-quantum-ai-genqai",
      "informs": "Q0",
      "drives": "roadmap",
      "value": "48 logical / 98 physical (Helios)",
      "layer": "errorcorr",
      "approach": "Trapped ion",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Helios: 48 logical / 98 physical (2:1 ratio), 99.92% 2-qubit fidelity (Nov 2025) — today's logical-qubit frontier and first milestone of the H2→Helios→Sol→Apollo roadmap (Apollo 2029–30: thousands physical → hundreds logical), which drives the optional vendor-curve scenario (§2.3; scenario median 2046)."
    },
    {
      "key": "bluvstein_2024",
      "name": "QuEra · Harvard/MIT",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Bluvstein et al., Nature 2024",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.03982",
      "informs": "Q0",
      "value": "48 logical qubits",
      "layer": "errorcorr",
      "approach": "Neutral atom",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "48 logical qubits on reconfigurable neutral-atom arrays (Bluvstein et al., Nature 2024) — evidence q(t) is still ~10¹–10²."
    },
    {
      "key": "alice_bob",
      "name": "Alice & Bob",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Alice & Bob, Jan 2026",
      "url": "https://alice-bob.com/newsroom/reducing-quantum-computing-errors-with-new-code/",
      "informs": "floor",
      "value": "cat qubits · ~350k for RSA-2048; Elevator Codes 10⁴× error ↓",
      "layer": "errorcorr",
      "approach": "Cat qubits (bosonic)",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Bias-preserving cat qubits factor RSA-2048 with ~350k physical (~4 days); 'Elevator Codes' (Jan 2026) cut logical error 10,000× at only 3× qubits — evidence the QEC overhead behind our floor can keep falling."
    },
    {
      "key": "photonic_inc",
      "name": "Photonic Inc.",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Photonic, 2025",
      "url": "https://photonic.com/news/shyps-codes-announcement/",
      "informs": "floor",
      "value": "SHYPS qLDPC · up to 20× fewer physical qubits",
      "layer": "errorcorr",
      "approach": "Silicon spin · optical",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "SHYPS qLDPC codes run all algorithms with up to 20× fewer physical qubits than surface code ([49,9,4]: 49:9 vs 225:9) on optically-linked silicon-spin qubits — same overhead-collapse trend (IBM gross code, Alice & Bob) behind a falling floor."
    },
    {
      "key": "kalai_skeptic",
      "name": "Gil Kalai",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Kalai, 2019",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.02499",
      "informs": "stall",
      "value": "skeptic: correlated noise may bar scalable FTQC",
      "layer": "errorcorr",
      "approach": "Skeptic · complexity",
      "status": "contested",
      "fact": "'The Argument against Quantum Computers': entangled qubits may suffer correlated errors that keep noisy systems below the fault-tolerance threshold, so scalable FTQC could be fundamentally impossible. The cited basis for our multi-decade stall tail — the dissenting view (Aaronson judges the path 'narrowing' given a dozen corroborating QEC experiments)."
    },
    {
      "key": "gidney_2025",
      "name": "Craig Gidney · Google",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Gidney 2025",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15917",
      "sets": "R2025",
      "value": "1,000,000 qubits (RSA-2048, ~1 week)",
      "layer": "algorithms",
      "approach": "Resource estimates",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Cut the RSA-2048 estimate from ~20M qubits (2019) to <1M (2025) — sets R(t), the requirement curve."
    },
    {
      "key": "roetteler_2017",
      "name": "Roetteler et al. · Microsoft Research",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Roetteler et al., 2017",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752",
      "sets": "ECC_RATIO",
      "value": "0.38  (~2,330 vs ~6,190 logical)",
      "layer": "algorithms",
      "approach": "Resource estimates",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "ECC-256 needs ~2,330 logical qubits — fewer than RSA-2048's ~6,190; sets the ECC branch (ECC_RATIO=0.38)."
    },
    {
      "key": "gidney_ekera_2019",
      "name": "Gidney & Ekerå",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Gidney–Ekerå 2019",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.09749",
      "informs": "R2025",
      "value": "20M qubits (2019 origin)",
      "fact": "The 2019 origin point: 20M physical qubits / 8h for RSA-2048 — the level the requirement curve falls from."
    },
    {
      "key": "chevignard_2024",
      "name": "Chevignard–Fouque–Schrottenloher",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "CRYPTO 2025 (ePrint 2024/222)",
      "url": "https://eprint.iacr.org/2024/222",
      "informs": "R2025",
      "value": "~1,730 logical (~0.85n)",
      "layer": "algorithms",
      "approach": "Resource estimates",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Approximate residue arithmetic removes the n-qubit arithmetic bottleneck (~0.85n ≈ 1,730 logical for RSA-2048) — the algorithmic basis Gidney 2025 builds on to reach <1M physical."
    },
    {
      "key": "oratomic_2026",
      "name": "Oratomic · Caltech · UC Berkeley",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Cain et al., Mar 2026",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627",
      "informs": "floor",
      "value": "~102k physical RSA-2048; 10–26k ECC-256",
      "layer": "algorithms",
      "approach": "Neutral-atom · qLDPC",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Reconfigurable atom arrays + high-rate qLDPC (~30% encoding vs ~4% surface) cut RSA-2048 to ~102k physical (~97-day run); ECC-256 to ~10–26k — the most aggressive 2026 estimate, sitting right at our irreducible 100k floor."
    },
    {
      "key": "regev_2023",
      "name": "Oded Regev",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Regev, 2023",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.06572",
      "informs": "R2025",
      "value": "multidimensional Shor · Õ(n^1.5) gates × √n runs",
      "layer": "algorithms",
      "approach": "Factoring algorithm",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "A multidimensional extension of Shor's algorithm — fewer gates (Õ(n^1.5), ~√n runs) but more qubits, on a heuristic assumption; the author notes it is unclear it improves physical implementations. Evidence the factoring-algorithm frontier is still moving — why the requirement is a declining distribution with a breakthrough lever, not a fixed number."
    },
    {
      "key": "ragavan_vaikuntanathan",
      "name": "Ragavan & Vaikuntanathan · MIT",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "CRYPTO 2024 (arXiv 2310.00899)",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.00899",
      "informs": "R2025",
      "value": "space-efficient Regev · O(n log n) qubits, noise-robust",
      "layer": "algorithms",
      "approach": "Factoring algorithm",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Cuts Regev's qubit overhead back to O(n log n) (the 'best of Shor and Regev') and adds noise-robustness — the active research keeping algorithmic improvement, and hence the breakthrough lever, a live risk on the requirement curve."
    },
    {
      "key": "fowler_2012",
      "name": "Fowler et al. (surface codes)",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Fowler et al., 2012",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1208.0928",
      "feeds": "h-fit",
      "value": "~1e9 physical qubits (2000-bit, p=1e-3)",
      "fact": "Origin of the requirement-decline series the model fits (h): ~1 billion physical qubits, ~1 day (2012)."
    },
    {
      "key": "ibm_eagle",
      "name": "IBM Eagle",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "IBM Newsroom, Nov 2021",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2021-11-16-IBM-Unveils-Breakthrough-127-Qubit-Quantum-Processor",
      "feeds": "tau-fit",
      "value": "127 qubits (2021)",
      "fact": "Qubit-history point the model fits (tau): 127 physical qubits, Nov 2021."
    },
    {
      "key": "ibm_osprey",
      "name": "IBM Osprey",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "IBM Newsroom, Nov 2022",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2022-11-09-IBM-Unveils-400-Qubit-Plus-Quantum-Processor-and-Next-Generation-IBM-Quantum-System-Two",
      "feeds": "tau-fit",
      "value": "433 qubits (2022)",
      "fact": "Qubit-history point the model fits (tau): 433 physical qubits, Nov 2022."
    },
    {
      "key": "ibm_survey_2024",
      "name": "IBM processors survey",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "J. Supercomputing 2025",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.00916",
      "feeds": "tau-fit",
      "value": "IBM line: 5 (2016) … Condor 1,121 (2023)",
      "fact": "Peer-reviewed source for the 2016 (5) and Condor (1,121, 2023) qubit-history points the model fits (tau)."
    },
    {
      "key": "nist_ir_8547",
      "name": "NIST",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "NIST IR 8547, 2024",
      "url": "https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/ir/8547/ipd",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "PQC standards",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "IR 8547: RSA-2048 / ECC-P256 (112-bit) deprecated after 2030, disallowed after 2035 — the defense-side clock (context, not a model input)."
    },
    {
      "key": "cnsa_2_0",
      "name": "NSA CNSA 2.0",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "NSA, 2022 (upd. 2025)",
      "url": "https://www.nsa.gov/Press-Room/News-Highlights/Article/Article/3148990/nsa-releases-future-quantum-resistant-qr-algorithm-requirements-for-national-se/",
      "value": "NSS quantum-resistant by 2035; acq. 2027; net 2030",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "Migration mandate",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "The defensive clock: new NSS acquisitions PQC by 2027, networking exclusive by 2030, OS/cloud by 2033, full quantum-resistance across National Security Systems by 2035 (NSM-10). With NIST IR 8547, the 'Z'/migration side of Mosca's inequality (X+Y>Z) — the harvest-now-decrypt-later urgency. Context, not a model input."
    },
    {
      "key": "gri_qtt_2025",
      "name": "Global Risk Institute · Mosca/Piani",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "GRI / Mosca–Piani, 2025",
      "url": "https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025b/",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "Threat analysis",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Quantum Threat Timeline (7th ed., 9 Mar 2026; 26 experts): averaged expert likelihood of a CRQC (break RSA-2048 in 24h) of 28–49% within 10 years, 51–70% within 15, and 69–86% within 20 — the highest 10-year estimate in the survey's seven-year history (up from 19–34% in 2024). Our primary calibration benchmark."
    },
    {
      "key": "gri_qtt_2024",
      "name": "Global Risk Institute · Mosca",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "GRI / Mosca, 2024",
      "url": "https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/2024-quantum-threat-timeline-report/",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "Threat analysis",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Quantum Threat Timeline (32 experts): ~19–34% chance of a CRQC (break RSA-2048 in 24h) within 10 years, ~5–14% within 5 — the prior survey, superseded as our primary benchmark by the 2025 edition (which raised the 10-yr band to 28–49%)."
    },
    {
      "key": "sevilla_2020",
      "name": "Sevilla & Riedel",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Sevilla et al., 2020",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.05045",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "Statistical extrapolation",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Statistical extrapolation of superconducting metrics: <5% confidence RSA-2048 is broken before 2039; ~0.1%/yr base rate for discontinuous breakthroughs — the most conservative external benchmark, near our own curve."
    },
    {
      "key": "metaculus",
      "name": "Metaculus community",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "Metaculus, 2026",
      "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/quantum-computer-to-factor-a-2048-bit-number/",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "Forecast aggregation",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Community forecast for factoring the RSA-2048 challenge number: median ~2033 (IQR 2030–2039, 23 forecasters) — jumped ~20 years sooner on 2025 news; an independent crowd benchmark beside the expert surveys."
    },
    {
      "key": "darpa_qbi",
      "name": "DARPA QBI",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "DARPA, Nov 2025",
      "url": "https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/quantum-benchmarking-initiative/stage-b-selection",
      "value": "Stage B: 11 firms incl. all 4 scenario vendors",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "Independent validation",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "The Quantum Benchmarking Initiative third-party-validates utility-scale-by-2033 claims. All four roadmaps behind our scenarios — IBM, IonQ, QuEra, Quantinuum — advanced to Stage B (Nov 2025): an independent credibility filter on the vendor targets."
    },
    {
      "key": "prc_minerals",
      "name": "PRC export controls",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "MOFCOM, 2024–25",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/09/china-suspends-ban-on-exports-of-gallium-germanium-antimony-to-us.html",
      "value": "Ga/Ge/Sb ban (Dec '24) → suspended Nov '25",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "Geopolitics (context)",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "China's gallium/germanium/antimony export ban (Dec 2024) + rare-earth-processing controls (Oct 2025) — suspended under the Nov 2025 truce (expires Nov 2026) — source the latent 'supply-chain rupture' intervention; Western processing is 3–7 yr from scale."
    },
    {
      "key": "mckinsey_qtm",
      "name": "McKinsey QTM 2026",
      "type": "FIRM",
      "cite": "McKinsey, Apr 2026",
      "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-technology/our-insights/mckinsey-quantum-technology-monitor-2026-a-commercial-tipping-point",
      "value": "VC $12.6B in 2025 (6.3× 2024); ~90% to QC",
      "layer": "standards",
      "approach": "Investment (context)",
      "status": "",
      "fact": "Private quantum investment hit $12.6B in 2025 (6.3× 2024), ~90% to quantum computing; public-funding share fell 33%→3% — a capital surge that de-risks vendor roadmaps. Context, not a model input (no funding→qubits node)."
    },
    {
      "key": "prior_tau",
      "name": "τ — FT-qubit doubling time",
      "type": "JUDGMENT",
      "prior": "tau",
      "cite": "our prior, bracketed by roadmaps",
      "url": "",
      "value": "Triangular = raw fit × forward (1.0, 1.75, 3.0)",
      "fact": "Doubling time of FT-quality qubits = the in-core raw fit widened by a labelled forward slowdown; vendor-fast .. skeptic-slow, unproven at scale."
    },
    {
      "key": "prior_maturity",
      "name": "maturity — FT-quality ramp",
      "type": "JUDGMENT",
      "prior": "maturity",
      "cite": "our prior",
      "url": "",
      "value": "Uniform(4, 12) yr",
      "fact": "Years for the FT-usable fraction q(t) to mature Q₀→1 after below-threshold."
    },
    {
      "key": "prior_h",
      "name": "h — requirement halving time",
      "type": "JUDGMENT",
      "prior": "h",
      "cite": "our prior",
      "url": "",
      "value": "Uniform = historical fit × (1 … 5)",
      "fact": "Halving time of the qubit requirement = the in-core historical fit, widened up to 5× slower (floor-limited, low leverage)."
    },
    {
      "key": "prior_floor",
      "name": "floor — irreducible qubit floor",
      "type": "JUDGMENT",
      "prior": "floor",
      "cite": "bounded by Oratomic 2026",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627",
      "value": "Uniform(100k, 900k)",
      "fact": "Algorithmic improvement cannot drive the RSA-2048 requirement to zero; the 100k lower bound is anchored by the most aggressive 2026 estimate (~102k physical, neutral-atom/qLDPC — Oratomic·Caltech)."
    },
    {
      "key": "prior_lag",
      "name": "lag — capability → usable",
      "type": "JUDGMENT",
      "prior": "lag",
      "cite": "our prior",
      "url": "",
      "value": "Uniform(0, 5) yr",
      "fact": "A first demonstration is not an at-will attack capability."
    },
    {
      "key": "prior_stall",
      "name": "stall — engineering wall",
      "type": "JUDGMENT",
      "prior": "stall",
      "cite": "our prior; skeptic basis Kalai 2019",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.02499",
      "value": "30% × Uniform(3, 30) yr",
      "fact": "Yield / connectivity / interconnect wall — the model's fat right tail; its skeptic basis is Kalai's correlated-noise argument that scalable FTQC may be impossible."
    }
  ]
}