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causal forecast
CAUSAL ANALYSIS · ONGOING RESEARCH

When does a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer arrive?

The distribution below is the output of a causal model running live in your browser.

A structural causal model of two moving curves whose crossing is the capability date: achievable fault-tolerant qubits rising (only after below-threshold error correction makes them possible), and the qubits required to break RSA-2048 (or equivalent elliptic-curve cryptography) falling as the algorithm improves; plus an access lag and a fat-tailed stall risk. Every node below shows its live value and the player whose result sets it. Drag a prior or fire an intervention — the model recomputes.

The causal model — every node computed, every anchor sourced

Red-bordered nodes are priors you control; the rest are computed. Sourced anchors link to the primary result. Pick a vendor roadmap and the achievable curve N(t) becomes that vendor's published roadmap (shown dashed), with its own slip prior.

The priors (drag)

hardware
algorithm
access & risk
interventions — do()
counterfactual — abduction
attribution — necessity & sufficiency

Forecast — CRQC available

RSA-2048 — available date (the primary target)
ECC-256 / ECDSA — the equivalent elliptic-curve target (covers secp256k1, the Bitcoin/Ethereum curve)
the mechanism — two curves, central case (drag a prior; the crossing moves)
achievable FT qubits N(t)required R(t)crossing → capability
the resulting distribution — available date (+ access lag + stall tail)
probability by yearP50 (median)counterfactual (when set)

computing…

What would change our mind. The forecast is floor-limited, so the levers that move it most: ↓ a sub-100k-qubit factoring algorithm (better codes / qLDPC) pulls it in sharply; ↓ sustained sub-yearly FT-qubit doubling, or a verified logical-qubit breakthrough, moves us toward the expert band; ↑ an engineering/yield wall, or a stall in below-threshold scaling, pushes it past 2065. Drag the matching prior to see each move.

Run log

The field — hung on the mechanism it moves

Not a logo wall: each player sits under the causal node it drives, and carries a primary source. Players that set or inform a model anchor are tagged; the rest are context. Vendor roadmap targets and contested claims are labelled.

Sources & proof

Every anchor traces to a primary; every prior is labelled judgment with a range. The whole model is generated from one file — download the full sourced dataset (data.json): every number, every source, the single file the engine and this page are built from.

Glossary — hover any dotted term, or expand here